Two days ago, I couldn't lose. Yesterday, I couldn't win (although if I switched up the Rays and Mets I would have at least split the day).
Today, I'm going to finish the week with a bang and make my college football betting debut! I have FIVE PICKS to provide for you all today in an attempt to cross the line from mediocre to cash money.
I'm aware 5-0 is basically a pipe dream at this point, but if it happens, I am going to be UNBEARABLE (in a good way!) on Monday.
As they say in The Hunger Games, may the odds be ever in my favor!
NCAAF
Virginia Tech +5.5
This is my first college football play of the year, and I LOVE it.
From the second I first laid eyes on that line, I felt like they were begging me to take the Hokies.
First off, you take your losses early in the year when you are a good team because recency bias exists. When CFP rankings roll around, no one cares about that one bad loss you had in week one anymore, only the success you had lately.
I don't necessarily have the cojones to call for an upset here, but I can guarantee that it'll be a close game.
Virginia Tech plays up to their opponents at home, and UNC plays down to their opponents on the road.
The Tar Heels failed to cover 5.5 points or lost straight up in their first three road games of last season. So, they start the season slow.
On the slip side, the Hokies covered +5.5 points in every home game last year with the exception being the Clemson game, which makes complete sense.
Also, who can forget the 6OT marathon between these two teams in 2019??
These squads usually play each other close, and I don't expect anything to change here in game one.
MLB
Reds -1.5 +105
Going to be honest from the jump and say this is 75% a fade of the Tigers.
They are 28-37 when playing in enemy territory and 38-51 when batting against a right-handed pitcher. Detroit is also 50-64 as a betting underdog.
Simply not good stuff here.
On the other side, the Reds prefer lefty pitchers, and they are getting one in Tyler Alexander. They are also dominate inferior squads with a record of 44-31 as a betting favorite.
I have the Reds covering here, although the game may have a shot at being uncomfortable down the stretch
Phillies ML -145
I'm going to ignore Philly's road woes and still pick them to win versus Miami in this spot.
I love Kyle Gibson. He was a great get at the trade deadline, and he is taking the mound tonight for the Phillies.
I think this bet is as easy as Philadelphia putting up runs because I expect Gibson to go deep into this game and pitch masterfully.
I'm also getting Philly at a good time as they are winners of six straight.
Hot Phillies squad + ace pitcher = $$$$$
Angels -1.5 +110
Yes, this may be me fading a team again, but I also love the Angels here.
Shohei Ohtani is pitching for Los Angeles tonight, and he has won and covered the run line in four of his last five home starts.
Additionally, Texas is a dreadful road team, losing three of every four away games. They are also 24-56 against right-handed pitching.
You hate to see that if you are the Rangers.
It's like everything is lining up for a hot Angels team (winners of three of four) to win and cover here.
Astros ML -125
To close off this big betting day, I have the Astros over the Padres!
Although the Astros aren't necessarily playing their best ball, they are catching the Padres at the right time as they are in a slump, going 4-6 in their last 10 games.
Jake Arrieta isn't going to do any favors to that slump either because he's, well, TRASH.
Arrieta lost 11 of his last 12 appearances, and he's going up against an Astros squad that loves their righties.
San Diego also struggles against superior teams, losing two of every three games when they are a betting underdog.
Houston is going to put their scoring slump to bed here and dominate the Padres.
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