NBA
Bucks -4.5 vs. Heat
These are two teams trending in different directions. The Heat have won nine of its last 10 games, going 6-3-1 ATS in that same span. On the flip side, people are starting to doubt if this is the same Bucks team that won the title just one season ago. Milwaukee has dropped four of its last six games with those two wins coming against the struggling Pacers and Hornets.
With all this in mind, wouldn’t it make sense to bet the Heat?
That is exactly why I’m on the Bucks! A square bettor looks at this line and thinks, “A hot team WITH 4.5 points? Sign me up!” but I think this is a trap being set by Vegas.
A whopping 74% of the public is on the Heat covering the spread tonight, according to BettingPros. Vegas doesn’t make mistakes. The oddsmakers are smarter than us, and what they are telling us is Milwaukee is the better squad. I believe it as well.
While the Heat routing the Bucks earlier in the season doesn’t exactly excite me, the Bucks were without Holiday to defend the Heat’s best guard in addition to Lopez/Portis to defend Adabayo, who went on to drop 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting.
The Bucks now have all those guys back, and we’ve seen what they can do to Miami with a healthy squad, which is annihilate them three out of four games for a first-round sweep in the 2021 postseason.
Don’t overthink it. Take the Bucks.
NHL
Blues ML at Rangers
Besides the fact that I like St. Louis to win tonight, the line was the first thing that jumped out to me.
The Rangers are home, (where they are 17-5-3 on the year), the Blues are away (where they are a worse 13-8-4 on the year) and everyone important is healthy… so why is this game a pick ‘em?
The public seems to agree with that sentiment as well because 63% of the bets are on the Rangers, according to The Action Network.
I’m on the Blues tonight, though, because the way you beat the Rangers is by having a high-powered offense to make getting pucks past Igor Shesterkin that much easier.
The Blues just so happen to have that covered. They have scored at least four goals in each of its last four games. Three of them were even on the road! St. Louis is also scorching hot, having won six of its last seven games.
As for the Rangers, they are 8-4-1 at home against squads currently in the playoffs, which sounds pretty impressive, but when you have five total losses at home, that tells me you love to dominate the bad teams and perform worse against the better ones. They are also struggling a bit as of late, having lost three of their last five games.
Take the scorching Blues over the reeling Rangers at a great pick ‘em rate!