MLB
New York Mets ML (-135)
Nothing insane here. Just riding one of the trends closest to a "sure thing" as they come, which is taking the Mets after a loss.
After dropping a game, New York is the best in the MLB at responding to it, going 18-4 in this situation and 17-5 ATS.
To sweeten the pot just a bit more, the Mets are the third best team straight up as a home favorite, coming into today at 19-7.
The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 8 of their last 10 games. While some may point to last night's win as a bright spot, I see it as more of an anomaly with the losing continuing tonight.
Tylor Megill is on the mound for New York tonight as well, and while he isn't the sexiest option out there as far as starting pitching goes, he does generally perform well at home with only one loss at Citi Field this season.
He also dominated the Brewers in New York in 2021, lasting five innings while allowing only two hits and striking out seven.
I expect both trends to continue tonight: the Mets having success after a loss and the Brewers, well, being trash.
The squares have been eating this whole week, and I see that continuing with this pretty square pick.
NBA
Boston Celtics -4 (-110)
For my most confident pick of the night, I have the Celtics comfortably covering the spread and forcing a game seven in the NBA Finals.
I'm sure everyone has heard enough of this by now, but Boston is 7-1 after a loss this postseason. As for my favorite stat, the Celtics have *never* lost three games in a row in the finals, and we know how much they have been there.
Aside from these general team stats, I also feel like we haven't had a Jayson Tatum game yet in the past five games. I see that changing tonight with the C's on the brink of elimination.
Additionally, the Warriors have not had much success on the road all postseason, going 3-6 ATS (and let's be real... they should be 2-7 because they had no business being favored by only 2.5 points in game three against the Nuggets).
This would be two straight road victories for the Warriors, which I don't foresee, and three straight losses for the Celtics, which is even crazier.
Boston has been in the game through three quarters during its last two losses, and all they need to do is clean up the final act, which shouldn't be too difficult to do in front of their home fans.
See you Sunday in San Francisco!