MLB
New York Yankees ML (-140)
I'm taking the Yanks to stay hot and continue their five-game winning streak.
What drew my eye to this game originally was, for the first time in a while, New York appears to be the sharp play with only 47% of the bets backing them at home tonight.
When a few people choose to be contrarians, it usually works out for them, but when the majority of the population chooses to be one, it's no longer a "hip" play.
More analytically speaking, Nestor Cortes is on the mound, and he has yet to lose at home this season. As a matter of fact, the most runs he has given up in front of the Yankee faithful is three against the White Sox in late May.
When playing against the Rays, his success only continued, going eight innings strong while allowing only four hits and one earned run.
Additionally, as you would expect, the Rays are much more dominant at home as opposed to on the road, boasting a 21-13 record in Tampa and a 14-13 everywhere else.
So, why not back the Yankees at home while they are hot, people are doubting them and we can expect a dominant performance from the starting pitcher? Count me in.
NHL
Avalanche ML (-150)
My reasoning here is quite simple, actually.
The home team has started off Stanley Cup Finals with a win in game one every year dating back to 2016.
Also, I feel like the public is a little too fond of the Lightning at this point in time (45% of the bets are on a clear-cut underdog!).
They managed to beat a team that took Pittsburgh to seven games in round one in six games, and people are now hailing them as the best team in the NHL? Pump the breaks a bit.
The public is also very quick to back the winner of the past two Stanley Cups. While the Lightning very well may end up winning it all, I don't believe that should be an overwhelming reason to favor one team over the other.
I've heard rumblings of people saying, "Colorado hasn't faced a good goalie yet this whole postseason!" and my response to that is Tampa struggled mightily to defend the last high-profile offense it faced: the Toronto Maple Leafs. That series went seven games, and I expect to see a similar string of games here as well.
Against the Rangers, the Lightning took 2.5 games to adjust to the Rangers, a team that dominated them in the regular reason, and I believe the same will occur starting tonight against the Avalanche, a team that swept the Lightning during the regular season.