What a Thursday we have here! Football is BACK and won't be leaving until February, the MLB has some juicy games to offer and Friday is just around the corner.
It just feels like nothing can go wrong tonight. Because I have four picks to offer (including my first NFL pick), the "1-2 curse" that I've had for the last three days will finally come to an end.
Yesterday's struggles weren't necessarily my fault, though, because my Braves bet rested on a pitcher who got tossed a single out into the game.
Let's turn 1-2 into 4-0.
NFL
Cowboys +10 -125
I'm aware this isn't the actual line. I adjusted it because there aren't many games that end in a difference of nine points. I'm also not sure if this line is still available because I snagged it when the official line was at Cowboys +9.5, but I'm just showing you where I was at when I bet this game.
There are some big stats that I took into consideration for this game. Usually the Cowboys start the year fast and Tom Brady starts the year slow (while ending up with a Super Bowl most of the time).
In the last eight years, Brady has either lost or failed to cover a 10-point spread in week one seven times. In the last 16 YEARS, the Cowboys lost by 10 or more points only one time. That means this game will basically be history made if the Bucs cover the spread.
Also, deep down, I believe sports are rigged to an extent, and I don't think the NFL would give us a dud to start the year off.
As for some actual analysis, the Cowboys offense looked electric with Dak at quarterback before his injury last season. No matter how he is feeling or how fantastic this Bucs defense is, I can't see him folding in a shootout.
Ten points is way too much to ask to cover from the Bucs perspective. Give me the Cowboys +10.
MLB
Yankees ML -115
Long time no see, Yanks!
I've laid off of them for the most part during the rough patch this team has been on, but today I'm making an exception.
Matchups aside, my first reason for picking New York here is they ARE NOT going to get swept in a four-game series to a division foe. The Yankees have to take one, and this is the only one left.
As for the pitching, the matchups very much benefit the Yankees and put the Blue Jays at a disadvantage.
Nestor Cortes, Jr. will be pitching for New York tonight. Other than being a complete stud, he is a lefty, and Toronto hates those. Cortes has won five of this last seven games and has really excelled in those contests as well. He hasn't faced Toronto yet this year, but I don't expect it to be too tall a task for him.
On the other end, José Berríos is on the mound for the Blue Jays. He may be a big name, but the Yankees do still hit right-handers hard and he hasn't covered the run line in his last five road games.
I'm not taking Yankees spread, but it is still very telling.
Additionally, Berríos has given up at least fours runs in three of those games mentioned.
I view this as a bad spot for the Blue Jays and a great opportunity for the Yanks to get back in the win column.
Royals ML +110
It really isn't everyday where you see the Orioles favored in a game, and that doesn't change my mindset one bit because I will be betting on the Royals today.
John Means is on the mound for Baltimore tonight, and while he may be their ace, he is still in the midst of a six-game losing streak in his starts.
To make things better, Kansas City actually enjoys a good southpaw as well, which Means is.
Carlos Hernandez is pitching for the Royals, and he is on a nice streak himself, winning seven of his last eight starts.
If taking the Royals here didn't already feel good enough, the Orioles are 2-7 as a betting favorite this year. Ouch.
You know what to do.
Braves -1.5 -115
This isn't really what you're supposed to do in sports betting, but I'm rolling with 75% emotion and 25% logic in this play.
I just feel like the Braves *really* need this game, and dropping this series to the Nats will be painful for them in the NL East race with Philly right on their tails.
So, yes, I'm on them because I simply feel like they can't lose this big of a game. The other reason is Erick Fedde is pitching for the Nationals, and he has been ATROCIOUS pitching against the Braves this season.
In his three starts against Atlanta, he has given up six, five and five runs respectively. Unless the man had an awakening that I haven't heard about, I expect him to continue to his struggles.
This game is as easy as the Braves handling Washington's bats, which shouldn't be too hard.
How could I forget that the Nationals are 27-62 as underdogs this season, too?
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